In autumn, the first European third-generation network of the British company Hutchinson will start functioning. The other British operators prefer to wait and say that time has not come yet. Other companies are more open – the Spanish Telefonica decided to refuse its plans to deploy 3G in Germany, Italy, Switzerland and Austria, and left only the Spanish part of their territory open for the new technology.
Despite the fact that this decision cost it EUR 4.49 billion in estimated profits, Telefonica shares started to rise at once – the shareholders were relieved to know that the company is no longer obliged to deal with the new standard.
Hunn believes that the Spanish example will be followed by other companies as well. And it will be very difficult for those who will not abandon the idea of new technology deployment to persuade the consumers to pay bigger sums for the use of 3G phones. “It is extremely hard for me to understand the commercial logics of first paying hundreds of pounds for each user to launch a new technology, and then hope that users will download data for hours and thus help to return investments”.
A survey conducted recently by the newspaper Financial Time showed that a considerable number of users are not very excited by appearance of a new technology. Almost a half of those polled declared that they use mobile phones only for voice communication.
Meanwhile, experts counted that users will have to increase the use of non-voice services – mobile Internet communication, requests to reference services, etc. – by 10 times in order to help the company return its expenses on 3G licenses.
But operators will not want to lose money and so they will stick to the new standard for as long as possible even if there are new technologies in store. More and more specialists call the governments that established such high license prices not to corner mobile operators.
“We should not underestimate absence of understanding on the part of governments while auctions on new frequencies for new networks were being held, – says Nick Hunn. – The authorities seemed to believe that simple greediness can be seen as reasonable policy. If the government wants mobile communication to develop, it has to return the funds raised at tenders to companies”.
Some analysts believe that mobile operators should first of all put into operation the GPRS standard which provides quick and permanent Internet connection. “Companies should engage in GPRS advertising, come to terms with this standard, and only after that gradually start offering 3G to its users”, – thinks Paulo Pescatore, IDC Company analyst.
But it is not obvious that users will want this evolution. In any case, as all specialists say, non-voice data which is so important for mobile operators now has little difference from those offered to an Internet user in abundance. Three G – games, gambling, girls – that’s what a modern consumer is ready to spend his precious time on.
And if games or financial services can hardly be considered reprehensible, development of pornography in mobile networks may compel operators and authorities to make a hard moral choice.
“It will be interesting to see how the government will react to the first detected group of pedophiles who use new phones to send images”, – says Nick Hunn.